South Korea’s monthly exports hit record as chip boom rolls on

As per the latest business developments, South Korea’s exports extended their breakneck expansion in September as global demand for artificial intelligence continued to power semiconductor shipments, reinforcing expectations that the trade-dependent economy can withstand elevated interest rates.

Exports adjusted for working-day differences advanced 104.9% from a year earlier, according to Korea Customs Service Thursday. The value of exports touched $120.9 billion, the highest on record, after shipments in the first 20 days of the month advanced to an all-time high for the period.

South Korea’s exports additionally touched a record $814.5 billion in the first nine months of 2026, surpassing $800 billion for the first time, stated the customs office. On an unadjusted basis, shipments rose 83.5%, compared with a revised 68.7% gain in August. Imports increased 26%, resulting in a trade surplus of almost $50 billion.

Semiconductors remained the engine of the boom, with chip exports surging 263% from a year earlier to record $60.3 billion. Shipments of computers surged 435%, while petroleum products rose 72%. Automobile exports eased 5%.

The firm upside came despite fewer working days in September this year due to the Chuseok holidays, which ran from Sept. 24-26. That break declined in October last year, creating a calendar effect that can distort year-on-year comparisons.

The data show South Korea’s trade momentum remained robust through the end of the third quarter, supporting the Bank of Korea’s view that the economy can weather elevated borrowing costs, strengthening the case for further monetary tightening.

The central bank boosted its benchmark interest rate by a quarter percentage point to 3% in August, its second consecutive hike, after stronger-than-anticipated expansion and persistent underlying inflation prompted policymakers to act preemptively.

The BOK additionally upgraded its 2026 expansion forecast to 3.3% from 2.6%, citing robust exports and investment fuelled by the global AI build-out. Its six-month rate projections had a median of 3.25%, implying one more quarter-point gain, though Governor Shin Hyun Song stated the figure pointed to a gradual pace of tightening after the back-to-back moves.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. sees a risk that rates may need to climb even further if chip-fuelled expansion generates stronger inflation without significant financial-market stress. The Wall Street lender anticipates the BOK to mobilize rates in November and again in February and May, taking the benchmark to 3.75%.

The chip boom is additionally transforming the government’s fiscal stance. South Korea anticipates national tax topline to reach a record 478.6 trillion won ($353 billion) this year, up 28% from 2025, as semiconductor earnings, special dividends from chipmakers, a buoyant equity market and recovering consumption lift receipts.

Inflation is another key consideration for the BOK. Headline consumer-price expansion accelerated to 3.1% in August, while core inflation excluding volatile food and energy prices rose to 3.4%, indicating that underlying price pressures stay firm.

Continued export resilience is additionally improving South Korea’s external position and may backing further upside in the won, helping curb imported inflation and giving policymakers some flexibility over the timing of the next rate gain.

By destination, exports to China increased 123%, while shipments to the US jumped 137%. Exports to India and the European Union advanced 50% and 21%, respectively.