India-New Zealand trade needs 15-16% annual growth to hit NZ$7 billion target by 2030

Reports coming in for today mention that India and New Zealand will need to grow two-way trade in goods and services by roughly 15–16 percent annually through 2030 to meet their target of doubling bilateral trade to NZ$7 billion, putting the spotlight on the free trade agreement between the two countries that comes into force on October 20, 2026.

Two-way trade at present stands at around NZ$3.9 billion a year, according to New Zealand’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade. Reaching NZ$7 billion would require an gain of around NZ$3.1 billion, or roughly 79 percent from the current level. Achieving that by 2030 would require annual expansion of around 15–16 percent.

The main catalyst for that expansion will be the India-New Zealand Free Trade Agreement, which is scheduled to enter into force on October 20.

The pact gives New Zealand preferential access covering 95 percent of its current exports to India once fully implemented. Of this, 57 percent will receive full tariff elimination from day one, rising to 82 percent once the agreement is fully phased in. The longest tariff phase-outs will run for 10 years, while a further 13 percent of exports will receive significant tariff reductions.

For Indian exporters, the opening is broader from day one.

New Zealand will remove all tariffs on Indian goods when the agreement enters into force on October 20, 2026, giving Indian exporters duty-free access to its market from the first day.

The impact is most notable in sectors such as clothing and footwear, where the current tariff is 6.5 percent for the combined sector, and textiles, where it is 3.3 percent. Across all New Zealand merchandise imports from India, the trade-weighted average tariff is at present 2.4 percent.

The 2.4 percent figure reflects the average tariff after weighting individual tariff rates by the value of imports, rather than a simple average across all tariff lines.

For New Zealand, some of the biggest upside are concentrated in sectors where it already has a trading presence in India.

More than 95 percent of forestry and wood exports will be tariff-free immediately, while tariffs on sheep meat, wool and coal will be removed from day one. Current Indian tariffs are 5.5–11 percent on forestry products, 33 percent on sheep meat, 2.75 percent on wool and 2.75 percent on coal.

Seafood tariffs, at present 33 percent on key fish and seafood exports, will be phased out over seven years. The agreement additionally provides new preferential quota access for apples and kiwifruit. Apples at present face a 50 percent tariff, while kiwifruit faces a 33 percent tariff.

New Zealand estimates that the average tariff on its current exports to India will decline to around 3 percent, from a trade-weighted average of 9.2 percent in 2026. Tariff savings are estimated at around NZ$43 million a year initially, rising to NZ$62 million once the agreement is fully implemented, based on current trade marks.