Technical View: Bears may drag Nifty 50 below June low amid caution ahead of Fed meet; pressure may mount…

According to fresh market updates, The Nifty 50 wiped out its opening upside and remained under pressure for nearly the entire session, closing 1.2% softer on September 15 and marking a soft opening to the holiday-shortened week. Bears seized control on Tuesday, forming a long bearish candle, pushing the index below the previous week's low, breaking the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the surge from 22,183 to 24,774, and weakening overall momentum.

Traders remained wary ahead of the two-day U.S. The US central bank meeting starting later today. A spike in the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield above the 5% mark and crude prices hovering near $110 a barrel further dampened market sentiment.

Consequently, if the Nifty 50 decisively breaches the June low of 23,070 alongside the psychological 23,000 level, bearish pressure could drag the index toward the 22,900–22,800 range. Furthermore, as long as the index trades below 23,600, bears are likely to maintain control. That stated, in the immediate term, potential recovery marks to watch are 23,200–23,400, followed by 23,500–23,600, as per specialists.

The Nifty 50 opened sharply elevated and advanced closer to 23,600, but the surge lacked sustainability. Bears quickly reasserted control, driving the index into negative territory within the first hour. The sell-off intensified as the session progressed, with the index closing at 23,119, down 280 points (1.19%).

On daily charts, the index formed a long bearish candle, reflecting sustained selling pressure. It is at present trading roughly 5% below its 200-day EMA and 4% below its 100-day EMA, highlighting a fragile market structure.

The daily RSI stands at 22.23 in a declining trend, signaling firm bearish momentum. Additionally, the MACD histogram points to an acceleration in downside pressure.

Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research at Kotak Securities, noted that as long as the Nifty 50 trades below 23,250, the correction is likely to persist.

"On the downside, the market could slip to 23,000. Further downward movement may continue, potentially dragging the index to 22,900–22,850," he stated, adding that above 23,250, any pullback move could extend to 23,400–23,450.

He advised that given the volatile market texture, level-based trading is the ideal strategy for day traders.

In the meantime, the India VIX (fear gauge) surged 9.34% to 13.43, its highest level since July 24, signaling mounting discomfort for bulls. A decisive move above 14 could place bullish positions at major risk.

The banking index additionally opened with an upside gap but failed to sustain elevated marks, triggering a sharp bout of earnings-booking throughout the session. The index subsequently suffered a correction of over 1,200 points from its intraday high, ultimately settling at 55,795, down 812 points (1.43%) for the day.

On daily charts, Bank Nifty formed a sizeable bearish candle, underscoring persistent selling pressure at elevated marks. Technically, the index trades below its key moving averages, pointing to a weak near-term trend. The daily RSI stands at 33.23 in a downward trajectory, indicating that bearish momentum keeps dominate.

"Going ahead, the zone of 55,400–55,300 is anticipated to provide immediate backing for the banking index. A decisive breach below 55,300 could accelerate downside pressure, paving the way for a slide toward 54,800, followed by 54,300 in the short term," stated Sudeep Shah, Vice President of Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities.

On the upside, he further noted that the 56,300–56,400 zone will likely act as a crucial resistance hurdle, and the index must sustain above this level to signal any meaningful recovery.