Trade Setup for September 30: Top 15 things to know before the opening bell

The latest market report highlights that The Nifty 50 is unlikely to easily break out of the bear grip, given the weakening technical structure across parameters and US Treasury yields hovering near two-decade highs. The index declined a third of a percent on September 29, the monthly F&O expiry session, despite a sharp recovery from the day's low. It has declined 5.67 percent in September so far. As per specialists, Tuesday's low of 22,570 is anticipated to be a crucial level. A break below this level could trigger further downside towards the 200-week EMA at 22,380 and then the April low of 22,182. On the other hand, holding above 22,570 could drive the index towards the 22,800–23,000 zone. Experts keep advise a sell-on-rallies strategy.

Here are 15 data points we have collated to help you spot profitable trades:

1) Key Marks For The Nifty 50 (22,716)

Resistance based on pivot points: 22,750, 22,793, and 22,863

Backing based on pivot points: 22,610, 22,566, and 22,496

Special Formation: The Nifty 50 formed a small-bodied bearish candle with a long softer wick, resembling a hammer-like candlestick pattern, during the downtrend on the daily chart, indicating buying interest at softer marks. While this is generally considered a potential trend-reversal pattern, it requires firm follow-through buying over the upcoming sessions for confirmation. The index keeps trade below all key moving averages, which are sloping downward, while the RSI declined to 26.71 with a negative crossover. The MACD stays below the signal line, with the red histogram bar expanding for another session. All these indicators point to continued softness in the underlying momentum.

2) Key Marks For The Bank Nifty (54,260)

Resistance based on pivot points: 54,387, 54,533, and 54,770

Backing based on pivot points: 53,914, 53,767, and 53,531

Resistance based on Fibonacci retracement: 54,509, 55,897

Backing based on Fibonacci retracement: 53,300, 51,830

Special Formation: The Bank Nifty formed a thin-bodied candle with a long softer wick, indicating buying interest at softer marks. The formation resembled a doji-like candlestick pattern on the daily chart during the downtrend. Such a formation can signal a potential trend reversal but requires confirmation in the following sessions. The index declined 0.39 percent despite a sharp recovery from the day's low. It stays below all key moving averages, with its short- and medium-term moving averages trending downward. The RSI declined to 29.04, while the MACD extended its downtrend below the signal line, with the red histogram bar expanding for the fourth consecutive session. All these indicators signal continued pressure. 3) Nifty Call Options Data

According to the weekly options data, the maximum Call open interest was noted at the 23,000 strike (with 67.01 lakh contracts). This level can act as a key resistance level for the Nifty in the short term. It was followed by the 23,100 strike (43.49 lakh contracts) and 22,800 strike (38.51 lakh contracts).

Maximum Call writing was observed at the 23,000 strike, which saw an addition of 32.49 lakh contracts, followed by the 22,700 and 22,800 strikes, which further noted 32.46 lakh and 23.71 lakh contracts, respectively. There was hardly any Call unwinding noted in the 22,200-23,150 strike band. 4) Nifty Put Options Data

On the Put side, the 22,700 strike holds the maximum Put open interest (with 46.38 lakh contracts), which can act as a key backing level for the Nifty in the short term. It was followed by the 22,600 strike (45.66 lakh contracts) and the 22,500 strike (40.6 lakh contracts).

The maximum Put writing was placed at the 22,700 strike, which saw an addition of 32.99 lakh contracts, followed by the 22,600 and 22,500 strikes, which further noted 28.76 lakh and 15.95 lakh contracts, respectively. The maximum Put unwinding was noted at the 23,100 strike, which shed 2.35 lakh contracts, followed by the 22,900 and 23,000 strikes, which shed 1.17 lakh and 13,585 contracts, respectively.

5) Bank Nifty Call Options Data

According to the monthly options data, the maximum Call open interest was noted at the 55,000 strike, with 6.6 lakh contracts. This can act as a key resistance level for the index in the short term. It was followed by the 55,500 strike (5.36 lakh contracts) and the 54,500 strike (2.51 lakh contracts).

Maximum Call writing was observed at the 55,000 strike (with the addition of 2.83 lakh contracts), followed by the 55,500 strike (2.04 lakh contracts) and 54,500 strike (1.48 lakh contracts). There was hardly any Call unwinding noted in the 53,000-55,750 strike band.

6) Bank Nifty Put Options Data

On the Put side, the 55,000 strike holds the maximum Put open interest (with 6.94 lakh contracts), which can act as a key level for the index in the short term. This was followed by the 54,000 strike (4.88 lakh contracts) and the 53,000 strike (4.3 lakh contracts).

The maximum Put writing was placed at the 55,000 strike (which further noted 1.83 lakh contracts), followed by the 54,500 strike (1 lakh contracts) and 54,000 strike (86,520 contracts). The maximum Put unwinding was noted at the 53,000 strike, which shed 9,180 contracts, followed by the 54,900 and 55,800 strikes which shed 3,210 and 2,790 contracts, respectively. 7) Funds Flow (Rs crore) 8) Put-Call Ratio

The Nifty Put-Call ratio (PCR), which indicates the mood of the market, rose to 0.91 on September 29, compared to 0.71 in previous session.

The increasing PCR, or being elevated than 0.7 or surpassing 1, means traders are selling more Put options than Call options, which generally indicates the firming up of a bullish sentiment in the market. If the ratio falls below 0.7 or moves towards 0.5, then it indicates selling in Calls is elevated than selling in Puts, reflecting a bearish mood in the market. 9) India VIX

India VIX, which measures anticipated market volatility, declined 1.65 percent to 13.41 after rising sharply to an intraday high of 14.77 following the previous day's surge. That stated, it remained in an elevated zone, signalling some caution among bulls. A slide below the 12 level could provide greater comfort to bulls, while a decisive move above 14 could gain discomfort among traders at large. 10) Long Build-up (6 Stocks)

A long build-up was noted in 6 stocks. An gain in open interest (OI) and price indicates a build-up of long positions.

11) Long Unwinding (135 Stocks)

135 stocks saw a slide in open interest (OI) along with a decline in price, indicating long unwinding.

12) Short Build-up (7 Stocks)

7 stocks saw an gain in OI along with a decline in price, indicating a build-up of short positions.

13) Short-Covering (65 Stocks)

65 stocks saw short-covering, meaning a decrease in OI, along with a price gain.

14) High Delivery Trades, and High Rollovers

Here are the stocks that saw a high share of delivery trades. A high share of delivery reflects investing (as opposed to trading) interest in a stock.

Here are the stocks which saw the highest rollovers on expiry day.

15) Stocks Under F&O Ban

Securities banned under the F&O segment include firms where derivative contracts cross 95 percent of the market-wide position limit.

Stocks further noted to F&O ban: Nil

Stocks retained in F&O ban: SAIL

Stocks removed from F&O ban: LIC Housing Finance