Juniper Green shares rise 3%; JM Financial initiates ‘Buy’, sees 39% upside to Rs 371 target

The latest market report highlights that Juniper Green Energy shares rose over 3% in afternoon trade on Friday after JM Financial Institutional Securities initiated coverage with a 'Buy' rating and a target price of Rs 371, implying around 39.4% upside from the current market price.

The stock was trading at Rs 266.05 on the NSE, up 3.24%, as of 2:01 pm on Friday. JM Financial had cited 44% potential upside in its initiation note, based on the stock price at the time.

"Juniper Green is one of India's leading renewable energy (RE) IPPs," JM Financial stated, adding that it is focused on "development, construction and operation of utility-scale solar, wind, hybrid, FDRE and BESS projects".

The brokerage stated Juniper has "an operational portfolio of 2GW and a total portfolio of 8.4GW" and is among the top 10 RE IPPs in India. Its portfolio includes 2GW operational, 2.7GW under construction and 3.7GW under construction and awarded projects, along with 500MWh of BESS capacity and plans to add 4.9GWh.

"Macros favour RE expansion," JM Financial stated, noting peak power demand is anticipated to grow at a 6-7% CAGR to 388GW by FY32E from 271GW at present. It stated RE has "emerged as a key pillar of this demand momentum", supported by policy and the government's 500GW RE capacity target for 2030.

The brokerage stated Juniper is backed by a "professionally managed team with deep expertise across the RE value chain" and highlighted "many firsts", including merchant BESS and FDRE projects.

Topline, EBITDA and PAT rose from Rs 1.7 billion, Rs 1.5 billion and Rs 0.3 billion in FY22 to Rs 7 billion, Rs 6 billion and Rs 0.4 billion in FY26, with EBITDA margin at 84%.

"Over FY26A-29E, we reckon the firm would deliver a CAGR of 101%/104%/208% in topline/EBITDA/PAT," JM Financial stated. It values the stock at 9.5x FY28E run-rate EV/EBITDA, with risks including regulatory, execution, financing, commodity, grid and curtailment risks.