Trading Plan: Can Nifty 50 defend 23,000, Bank Nifty hold above 55,000 amid elevated bond yields, oil…

As per the latest business developments, The market is anticipated to stay wary, especially after US bond yields spiked to near 5.2 percent, their highest level since June 2007, while crude prices rose above $105 a barrel, allowing bears to tighten their grip on the market. The Nifty needs to defend 23,000 amid the bearish mood, as a convincing break below this level could open the door for a correction towards 22,700-22,500. On the upside, 23,200-23,300 will be the immediate resistance zone to watch. In the meantime, a break below 55,300 could drag the Bank Nifty down towards 55,000 and 54,500, while holding above 55,300 could pave the way for a move towards 55,700-55,900, experts stated.

On September 24, the Nifty 50 plunged 384 points, or 1.64 percent, to 23,063, while the Bank Nifty eased 1,110 points, or 1.96 percent, to 55,438. Market breadth remained firmly in favour of the bears, with around 2,476 shares declining compared with 772 advancing shares on the NSE. Nifty Outlook and Strategy

Dhupesh Dhameja, Derivatives Research Market observer at Samco Securities

Nifty’s sharp breakdown below 23,268 has kept the short-term structure under pressure, with 23,000 now the crucial backing level. The index is trading well below its 10-DEMA at 23,366, while the RSI at 31.22 stays near oversold territory and below its average of 31.69, signalling weak momentum.

Derivatives have turned bearish, with the PCR (Put-Call Ratio) at 0.76 and Call open interest at 24.26 crore contracts versus Put open interest of 17.69 crore contracts. Heavy Call positioning around 23,300-23,500 is capping the recovery. The India VIX surged 22.6 percent to 12.68, confirming rising volatility.

The bias stays sell-on-climb below 23,268; a sustained break below 23,000 can expose the index to the 22,850-22,800 zone.

Key Resistance: 23,150, 23,270, 23,380

Key Backing: 23,000, 22,850, 22,700

Strategy: Traders may consider the Bear Call Spread strategy for the September 29 expiry by selling one lot of the 22,850 CE at Rs 292 and buying one lot of the 23,150 CE at Rs 100. This setup is designed to capitalise on a potential downside movement.

Stop-Loss: Hold this strategy strictly, with the maximum Mark-to-Market (MTM) loss capped at Rs 7,030 to ensure disciplined risk management.

Target: Hold this strategy, aiming for a maximum Mark-to-Market (MTM) earnings of Rs 12,460, with earnings booking once MTM upside exceed Rs 7,000.

Jay Mehta, Technical Research at JM Financial Services

In the latest session, Nifty broke below the low of September 15’s bearish Marubozu, signalling continued bearish pressure. The index is at present holding above the immediate backing zone of 23,000. As long as this backing stays intact on a closing basis, mild consolidation or a pullback is possible.

The price is trading well below its short-, medium- and long-term moving averages, reflecting inherent softness. Momentum and trend indicators backing a negative bias. Further downside pressure is likely once the 23,000 backing is decisively breached.

Key Resistance: 23,300, 23,500, 23,600

Key Backing: 23,000, 22,700, 22,540

Strategy: The bias stays negative. On a sustained break below 23,000, fresh short positions can be initiated, targeting 22,700-22,540. Sell-on-climb opportunities can be considered near the resistance marks of 23,300 and 23,500.

Sachin Gupta, VP – Technical Research at Choice Equity Broking

On the daily chart, Nifty formed a firm bearish candlestick with a near-full-bodied slide, highlighting aggressive selling throughout the session. More importantly, the index decisively breached the previous backing zone around 23,000-23,100 as well as the rising trendline backing, indicating a deterioration in the recent price structure. The breakdown below the trendline has strengthened the bearish setup, while Nifty is additionally trading below its key short- and medium-term moving averages, adding further pressure to the technical structure.

The RSI stands at 31.22, indicating weak momentum and approaching oversold territory, although the indicator has not yet entered extreme oversold marks. Immediate backing is placed at 23,000-22,800, while 23,200-23,250 is likely to act as the first resistance zone. A sustained recovery above 23,250 would be required to ease the current selling pressure, whereas failure to hold the softer backing zone could extend the slide.

The derivatives setup additionally stays wary. The concentration of open interest between 23,000 and 23,200 makes this range important for the next directional move.

Key Resistance: 23,400, 23,500

Key Backing: 22,800, 22,900

Strategy: Sell Nifty Futures on a climb around 23,100-23,200, with a stop-loss of 23,500 on a closing basis.

Bank Nifty – Outlook and Positioning

Dhupesh Dhameja, Derivatives Research Market observer at Samco Securities

Nifty Bank’s decisive break below 56,053 has softened the short-term structure, with 55,479-55,500 now the immediate backing zone. The index stays below its 10-DEMA at 56,280, while the RSI at 36.01 stays below its average of 40.94, confirming weak momentum.

Derivatives stay wary, with the PCR at 0.963 and Call open interest of 2.07 crore contracts versus Put open interest of 1.55 crore contracts. Heavy Call concentration around 56,000-56,500 is keeping the recovery capped, while Put positioning around 55,000-55,500 offers the key cushion. The bias stays sell-on-climb below 56,053; sustained trade below 55,479 can open the door to 55,000, while only a move above 56,280 can stabilise the setup.

Key Resistance: 55,700, 55,900, 56,100

Key Backing: 55,400, 55,200, 55,000

Strategy: Traders can look to initiate short positions in Nifty Bank September Futures once it breaks below the 55,450-55,400 zone, keeping a strict stop-loss above 55,700. On the downside, earnings-booking targets are placed in the 55,100-55,000 range.

Jay Mehta, Technical Research at JM Financial Services

Bank Nifty recorded a negative session, and broke down from the recent seven- to eight-session range. It has additionally filled the bullish gap created on June 12.

The overall trend stays negative. The price is trading below its short-, medium- and long-term moving averages, with momentum indicators and the RSI supporting a bearish bias. This breakdown has occurred after a long consolidation of nearly two and a half months. The negative bias is likely to continue as long as the index stays below 56,900.

Key Resistance: 56,250, 56,800, 57,000

Key Backing: 55,300, 54,500, 54,000

Strategy: The bias stays negative. Fresh short positions can be initiated on a break below 55,300, targeting 54,500 and 54,000. Sell-on-climb marks are around 56,250 and 56,800, with a stop-loss above 57,000.

Sachin Gupta, VP – Technical Research at Choice Equity Broking

From a technical perspective, the daily chart has witnessed a decisive breakdown below its recent consolidation and key trendline backing, accompanied by firm selling activity. The banking index has additionally eased below its important moving-average cluster, while the RSI has softened to around 36, reflecting increasing bearish momentum.

Price action remained firmly negative, with softer marks continuously being tested and no meaningful intraday pullback emerging. Immediate backing is now placed around 55,200-55,000, while 56,300-56,500 is likely to act as an important resistance zone. Sustaining below the broken backing structure would keep the near-term setup under pressure.

Key Resistance: 55,700, 55,900

Key Backing: 55,000, 54,800

Strategy: Sell Bank Nifty Futures on a climb around 55,800, with a stop-loss of 56,200 on a closing basis.