NSE shares extend listing gains on debut day; brokerages see up to 10% upside – Check share price target

According to fresh market updates, National Stock Exchange of India (NSE) shares rose as much as 5.21 percent on their trading debut on Thursday, extending upside after stock-exchange debut at a premium to the offering price.

NSE shares started trading at Rs 1,800 per share on the BSE, up 0.84 percent from the offering price of Rs 1,785. The stock later advanced to Rs 1,878, up 5.21 percent from the offering price.

The upside placed NSE among the world's 10 largest listed exchanges and India's 10 biggest firms by market value.

Market watchers expect further upside in the stock, with research firms setting price targets of up to Rs 1,965 per share.

PL Capital initiated coverage on NSE with an 'Accumulate' rating and a price target of Rs 1,950 per share, implying an upside of around 9.2 percent over the offering price.

"Market dominance in cash and futures to continue; share erosion in index options to be a drag. Expect around 11 percent topline and PAT CAGR over FY26-29E; EBITDA margin to normalize to 76 percent as one-offs get adjusted," PL Capital stated in its report.

The brokerage stated NSE dominates the exchange landscape with more than 93 percent share in the cash market and nearly 100 percent in stock and index futures.

It stated NSE's market share in index options has declined to around 65 percent due to regulatory hurdles, while the introduction of CAS and proprietary trading rules has further impacted volumes.

While topline grew at a 25 percent CAGR during FY21-26, PL Capital anticipates expansion to moderate to an 11 percent CAGR over FY26-29E due to the shrinking share in index options.

The brokerage anticipates NSE's EBITDA margin to recover to 76 percent by FY29, from 71 percent in FY26, as the impact of one-off costs fades. It anticipates PAT to grow at an 11 percent CAGR during the period.

PL Capital stated NSE's IPO values the firm at Rs 4.4 lakh crore, with a price-to-earnings multiple of 32 times based on FY29E earnings. It stated the valuation largely captures the premium.

The report highlighted NSE's position as a market leader in the Indian exchange landscape, its diversified expansion engine and the anticipated recovery in EBITDA margin as the impact of one-time costs fades.

Macquarie additionally initiated coverage on NSE with an 'Outperform' rating and a target price of Rs 1,965 per share.

The target price implies an upside of around 10 percent over the IPO offering price of Rs 1,785.

Macquarie described NSE as "The Dominator", citing its leading market share, comprehensive suite of services, technology infrastructure and deep liquidity.

The brokerage stated these attributes make NSE a key part of India's ongoing financialisation. "Entrenched network effects, industry-leading profitability and cash" underpin its positive outlook on the exchange, Macquarie stated.