Trading Plan: Will Nifty 50 break below 23,200, Bank Nifty slip below 56,000 as caution prevails amid…

New business data points to the fact that The market is anticipated to stay wary, with range-bound trading likely in the near term, as the Nifty 50 keeps trade below all key moving averages, which are trending softer. Momentum indicators have additionally shown no reversal of trend, although they indicate some easing in bearish momentum. Further, the US 10-year bond yield spiked above 5.1 percent, while crude prices advanced back above $100 a barrel. Hence, the bears are anticipated to challenge the 23,200 backing level. A break below this level could drag the index towards the crucial backing zone of 23,100-23,000. On the upside, that stated, 23,500 will stay a key hurdle to watch. In the meantime, the Bank Nifty needs to defend the 56,000 backing level, as a break below it could lead to a decline towards 55,700. On the upside, the 56,800-57,000 zone is likely to act as a crucial resistance area, as per specialists.

On September 23, the Nifty 50 rallied 118 points, or 0.50 percent, to end at 23,447, while the Bank Nifty jumped 333 points, or 0.59 percent, to 56,549. Market breadth turned positive, with around 2,149 shares advancing compared with 1,092 declining shares on the NSE. Nifty Outlook and Strategy

Sudeep Shah, Head – Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities

After recording a low of 23,116, the benchmark Nifty has staged a pullback of more than 300 points. Despite this recovery, the index keeps trade below its key short-term and long-term moving averages, which stay in a downward trajectory, indicating that the broader trend is still weak.

Momentum indicators and oscillators have shown signs of improvement from softer marks. The daily RSI has rebounded from 22.23 to 40.25 and moved above its 9-day average, suggesting a recovery in momentum. Additionally, the Fast Stochastic has crossed above the Slow Stochastic line, reflecting a gradual easing of bearish pressure.

Going forward, the 23,250-23,200 zone is anticipated to provide immediate backing. A decisive breach below 23,200 could reignite selling pressure and lead to a resumption of the prevailing downtrend.

On the upside, the 20-day EMA zone of 23,600-23,650 is likely to act as a crucial resistance area. A sustained move above 23,650 would strengthen the ongoing recovery and could pave the way for a further extension of the pullback surge.

Key Resistance: 23,600, 23,650

Key Backing: 23,250, 23,200

Strategy: Buy Nifty Futures above 23,450, with a stop-loss at 23,280 and a target of 23,750.

Vaishali Patel, Deputy Manager – Research-Technical Department at Jainam Broking

Nifty closed elevated but remained within a narrow range amid wary market sentiment. The index has formed an Inside Bar candle, trading within the previous day's high-low range, indicating an absence of clear resilience from either side. The daily RSI is resisting near the 40 level, indicating a lack of upside momentum at current marks.

The immediate resistance is placed around 23,500-23,600, and a sustained breakout above 23,600 could improve the short-term structure. On the downside, 23,300-23,200 stays the immediate backing zone, followed by the crucial 23,000 level.

Overall, the near-term outlook stays range-bound to wary, with traders likely to watch the 23,200-23,600 range for a decisive breakout or breakdown.

Key Resistance: 23,500, 23,600

Key Backing: 23,280, 23,100

Strategy: Buy Nifty Futures above 23,500-23,450, with a stop-loss at 23,350 and a target of 23,650.

Vatsal Bhuva, Technical Market observer at LKP Securities

After forming a low near 23,100, Nifty has staged a recovery and reclaimed its 10-DMA on the daily chart during Wednesday's session. If Brent crude sustains below $100 a barrel, the recovery could extend towards the 20-DMA, placed around 23,650-23,700.

On the derivatives front, a strengthening PCR (Put-Call Ratio) and Put writing at elevated strikes indicate a gradual shift in the base. Immediate backing is placed at 23,300, while resistance stays at 23,650-23,700. For September, 23,000 keeps be a firm backing level, with the broader trading range anticipated between 23,000 and 23,800.

Key Resistance: 23,700, 23,800

Key Backing: 23,300, 23,000

Strategy: Buy Nifty September Futures at 23,400, with a stop-loss at 23,250 and a target of 23,650.

Bank Nifty – Outlook and Positioning

Sudeep Shah, Head – Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities

The banking benchmark index, Bank Nifty, has been consolidating within a narrow range of approximately 1,300 points during the past 10 trading sessions. This prolonged phase of consolidation has caused all key short-term and long-term moving averages to flatten, reflecting the absence of a clear directional trend. Momentum indicators and oscillators are additionally exhibiting a similar pattern, suggesting a period of indecision in the index.

Going forward, the 100-day EMA zone of 56,900-57,000 is likely to act as a significant resistance area. On the downside, the 55,800-55,700 zone will serve as a crucial backing region, as it coincides with the 50 percent Fibonacci retracement of the previous upward surge.

A decisive breakout above 57,000 or a breakdown below 55,700 is anticipated to provide fresh directional cues and could trigger a meaningful trending move in the index.

Key Resistance: 56,900, 57,000

Key Backing: 55,800, 55,700

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures above 56,700, with a stop-loss at 56,250 and a target of 57,400.

Vaishali Patel, Deputy Manager – Research-Technical Department at Jainam Broking

Bank Nifty keeps trade below its key moving averages, keeping the short-term structure wary. The index has been facing resistance around 56,700-56,800, while a sustained move above 57,000 would be required to improve the near-term structure.

On the downside, 56,100-56,000 stays the immediate backing zone, followed by 55,800-55,700. The RSI around 46 stays range-bound, while the MACD keeps trade below its signal line, indicating that momentum is yet to turn decisively positive.

Overall, the outlook stays range-bound to wary, with 56,000-57,000 emerging as the key range. A breakout or breakdown from this zone could provide the next directional signal.

Key Resistance: 56,650, 57,000

Key Backing: 56,000, 55,700

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures above 56,800-56,850, with a stop-loss at 56,300 and a target of 57,300.

Vatsal Bhuva, Technical Market observer at LKP Securities

Bank Nifty is at present consolidating in the 56,000-56,600 range and is trading near its 100-DMA, placed around 56,550. That stated, the index faces an immediate hurdle near 56,850, where the 20-DMA is placed, followed by the 57,000-57,200 zone. The RSI has entered a bullish crossover, indicating improving momentum.

On the derivatives front, a PCR of 0.90 suggests neutral sentiment, while firm Put writing at 56,000 and Call writing at 57,000 indicate key backing and resistance marks, respectively. Sustaining above 56,600 could strengthen momentum towards 57,000-57,200.

Key Resistance: 56,800, 57,000

Key Backing: 56,000

Strategy: Conditional buy — Buy Bank Nifty 56,800 CE of the September expiry above Rs 280, with a stop-loss at Rs 180 and a target of Rs 430.