Rupee may stabilise, will appreciate from current levels as BoP improves: RBI Dy Guv Poonam Gupta 

The latest market report highlights that The indian rupee’s depreciation, which has occurred over the last one and a half years, is a temporary phenomenon, and the currency is likely to stabilise and potentially appreciate as India’s balance of payments (BoP) position improves, according to Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Deputy Governor Poonam Gupta.

Speaking at the SBI Banking and Economics Conclave, Gupta stated the country’s BoP has been under pressure during the past two years, with the country recording a deficit of around $5 billion in 2024-25 and $23.6 billion in 2025-26, as the capital account surplus declined short of the current account deficit.

The indian rupee has fallen 13.1 percent on a point-to-point basis between March 31, 2025 and September 16, 2026, she stated.

That stated, she stated that the external position is anticipated to improve going forward. “There seems to be a fair case for the indian rupee to not just stabilise but perhaps even appreciate from the current marks,” Gupta stated.

Gupta stated that the central bank is committed to ensuring orderly conditions in the foreign exchange market and has sufficient reserves to meet India’s external financing needs.

“With the RBI remaining committed to ensuring orderly conditions in the foreign exchange market, and having the wherewithal to meet decades' worth of CAD, or the net BOP deficit, the current market dynamics do not appear especially well-founded,” she stated.

These comments come against the backdrop of multiple external shocks, such as elevated crude prices, geopolitical tensions and trade disruptions, which have weighed on India’s external position.

Gupta additionally stated the RBI’s capital-flow measures introduced in June had already resulted in a “meaningful BOP surplus” for the year.

The RBI’s foreign currency non-resident deposit measures resulted in inflows worth $133 billion, as at the end of August 31. Experts had estimated that the country’s BoP surplus could be upto $100 billion for the fiscal year 2027.