LIC, Meesho, Coforge, Swiggy top Centrum’s high-conviction list for MSCI India November review

According to fresh market updates, MSCI is anticipated to announce the results of its November 2026 Semi-Annual Index Review in the first half of next month, with changes taking effect at the end of November. Centrum Broking has released its early watchlist of likely additions and deletions to the MSCI India Global Standard Index, based on prices as of 16 September.

The data that will decide the review is frozen at a price trimmed-off in the last ten business days of October, so the current rankings can still shift. Borderline names are particularly sensitive to price moves between now and the trimmed-off date. How MSCI decides membership

MSCI’s selection rules turn on float-adjusted market capitalisation relative to a size cutoff (at present estimated by Centrum at roughly Rs 23,197 crore). A non-member is further noted only if it clears 1.5 times the cutoff (the +50% add buffer). An existing member is removed only if it falls below 0.667 times the cutoff (the –33% delete buffer). Free-float eligibility and liquidity screens additionally apply. Centrum’s rankings combine the size cushion above the boundary, free-float status, and how long a stock has remained eligible.

The list is framed as a Global (not Domestic) view, anchored to the actual constituents of the iShares MSCI India ETF (INDA), the vehicle that foreign passive money tracks.

High-conviction inclusion candidates

Among non-members that already clear the +50% add buffer, Centrum ranks the following as high-conviction candidates:

LIC (LICI) – Special situation fuelled by the government’s August 2026 Offer for Sale. The OFS lifted LIC’s free float from roughly 5% to around 12%, taking its Foreign Inclusion Factor past MSCI’s 15% eligibility line. Even on its still-thin float, the float-adjusted market value sits at 1.23 times the cutoff. Centrum treats LIC as a definitive add this review, though its eventual index weight will stay modest because only the investable float counts.

Meesho – 3.54 times the cutoff, high free float, and a firm recent price performance.

Coforge – 3.36 times the cutoff, full free float.

Swiggy – 3.22 times the cutoff, full free float.

Glenmark – 1.55 times the cutoff, additionally ranked high conviction.

Other names that clear the buffer but are ranked softer or flagged for low float include Max Financial Services, 360 One, Ather Energy, Radico Khaitan, Adani Green (low-float watch) and Lloyds Metals (low-float watch). Names that need an up-move

Several stocks sit inside the buffer zone and would need further price appreciation before the October trimmed-off to become realistic addition candidates. These include Sona Comstar (needs only around 1% more), Biocon, Welspun Corp, Delhivery, Karur Vysya Bank, Navin Fluorine, Hyundai, Redington, Aster DM and Apar Industries. Deletion and reduction risk

On the other side of the ledger, the current index members with the smallest float-adjusted market values — and as a result closest to the exit buffer — are:

A combination of a low multiple of the size boundary and a falling three-month price performance is the pattern that most often precedes a removal. MSCI’s buffers protect incumbents, so a size-fuelled deletion typically requires a genuine slide or a broad market sell-off.

Centrum repeatedly flags the importance of free float. Very large firms with thin investable float (parts of the Adani complex, Hyundai, and previously LIC) can clear the size boundary on full market capitalisation but still fail to enter the index because only the free float counts toward weight. The iShares INDA ETF at present does not hold these low-float names. LIC is the reverse case: its inclusion this time hinges almost entirely on the free-float gain delivered by the August OFS.

Centrum notes that its August 2026 watchlist correctly identified all four names that MSCI ultimately further noted (Adani Energy Solutions, Groww, Laurus Labs and Lenskart). The large low-float names it had flagged as unlikely to be further noted (Adani Green and Hyundai) were indeed kept out.

With the October price trimmed-off still a few weeks away, the November MSCI review stays fluid. LIC stands out as the clearest corporate-action-fuelled inclusion, while Meesho, Coforge, Swiggy and Glenmark lead the high-conviction size-based candidates. On the deletion side, PI Industries, ICICI Prudential Life and Oberoi Realty at present sit closest to the exit threshold. Passive flows linked to the final list will depend on the exact free-float assessments MSCI applies at the trimmed-off.