Gold edges above Rs 1,52,700; dollar, crude oil and geopolitics to drive prices

New business data points to the fact that Gold prices remained firm near $4,339 per ounce in the evening session on September 22, while US gold futures for December delivery declined 0.22 percent on Comex to $4,374 per ounce (12:58 GMT) from its previous close.

Prices are, that stated, more than 7 percent down from the month's peak of $4,658 per ounce on August 25, though they stay well above their yearly low of $3,976 recorded on July 16.

The domestic spot gold closed the Tuesday session at Rs 1,51,879 per 10 grams, while MCX gold futures for the October delivery declined 0.24 percent to Rs 1,52,729 per 10 grams (18:35 IST) from its previous close.

According to Ruchit Thakur, Market Market observer at VT Markets, precious metals are being pulled in opposite directions by currency, oil and monetary policy forces.

"The US The US central bank boosted its policy rate to 4 percent on September 16, while officials keep highlight elevated inflation, keeping US yields and the dollar relatively supportive. This is at present limiting gold’s upside; gold has recently retreated from its August peak," stated Thakur.

Dollar, oil and geopolitics to drive gold prices

In the meantime, the dollar declined 20 paise to close at 95.58 (provisional) against the indian rupee on Tuesday, supported by a sharp decline in oil price marks. Brent crude was trading 1.14 percent softer to $99.20 per barrel in futures trade amid improved global risk sentiment and hopes of diplomatic talks to resolve the US-Iran war.

"Oil above $100 per barrel stays an inflation and geopolitical risk. Elevated oil can gain safe-haven demand for gold, but it can additionally strengthen expectations of elevated-for-longer US rates, creating pressure on bullion," Thakur stated.

For India, the market observer suggests that a weaker indian rupee raises the domestic cost of imported gold and silver, potentially cushioning local prices even when international prices soften. "Overall, expect continued volatility, with dollar, yields and Fed guidance key for gold, while silver may react more sharply to global expansion and industrial demand signals."

The Augmont Bullion report (Sept. 22) noted that gold is struggling to find fresh momentum, with sentiment weighed down by growing expectations that interest rates will stay elevated for longer. "Market participants are now waiting on comments from US The US central bank officials for clearer policy signals."

Spot gold is trading between $4,250 and $4,450 (Rs 1.50–1.54 lakh), with a bullish bias. "Buy on dips near backing, while a breakout above $4,450 could open the way to $4,600–$4,700 (Rs 1.60–1.65 lakh)," the report stated.