Will NSE see a muted listing on Thursday? Here’s what analysts say

The latest market report highlights that The grey market premium (GMP) for NSE shares indicates a tepid stock-exchange debut gain when the firm's shares debut on the BSE on Thursday, as per market watchers tracking the tape tracking grey market activity.

That stated, market watchers advised market participants not to view the GMP alone as a verdict on NSE's fundamentals.

The NSE IPO continued to gain momentum on the last day of bidding, with the offering receiving 4 times subscription till the time of publishing the story.

Ponmudi R, CEO, Enrich Money, stated the declining GMP suggests that expectations of a big stock-exchange debut gain in the NSE IPO have moderated.

"Despite firm participation from marquee anchor market participants, the stock-exchange debut could be relatively muted if the current market sentiment continues," he stated.

The GMP has fallen to around 3 percent, compared with roughly 10-11 percent before the offering opened, indicating that the market is pricing in a much smaller stock-exchange debut premium, he stated.

Ponmudi stated market participants should not read the GMP alone as a verdict on NSE's fundamentals, as the exchange has a dominant position in India's capital-market ecosystem, firm cash generation and significant long-term expansion potential.

The anchor book attracted several large domestic and global institutions, underlining long-term institutional interest in the business, he further noted.

NSE boosted Rs 6,746 crore from anchor market participants, including state-owned Life Insurance Corporation of India (LIC), Goldman Sachs and Fidelity.

Sovereign wealth funds such as GIC Singapore, Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (ADIA) and Norges Bank, as well as Eastspring and HSBC Global Asset Management, additionally participated in the anchor round.

"The key offering is valuation and near-term expansion expectations. At the upper price range of Rs 1,785, NSE is valued at around Rs 4.42 lakh crore, while regulatory changes and moderation in derivatives activity stay important factors for earnings expansion," Ponmudi stated.

"As a result, I would differentiate between the stock-exchange debut-day performance and the long-term NSE story. A tepid or modest stock-exchange debut is certainly possible, but that does not necessarily weaken the long-term investment case. Post-stock-exchange debut, the focus should shift from GMP to earnings expansion, regulatory developments, trading volumes and NSE's ability to diversify its topline streams," he further noted.

As the IPO is entirely an offer-for-sale, NSE will not receive any proceeds from the offering. All the proceeds from the offer, excluding offering expenses, will be received by the selling shareholders.

Prashasta Seth, CEO, Prudent Investment Managers, stated the focus for a business like NSE should stay on fundamentals and sustainable earnings expansion rather than short-term GMP movements.

"A declining GMP can indicate softer near-term stock-exchange debut expectations, but I would not view a 10-15 percent decline in the stock price by itself as a reason to reassess the underlying business," he stated.

"NSE's core business has the potential to grow at around 15 percent annually, with 15-17 percent being a reasonable medium-to-long-term return expectation. The exchange additionally has a firm franchise, around 33 percent ROE, and a structurally firm market position. That stated, market participants should monitor regulatory developments closely because options contribute roughly 60 percent of topline, making changes in the derivatives market an important risk factor," Seth stated.

"The key factors will be earnings expansion, valuation and market-share trends, particularly in options. NSE is at present valued at around 12-15 percent softer than BSE on a P/E basis, largely because BSE has been gaining market share in options," he stated.

"Structurally, NSE should command a premium given its franchise resilience, but that valuation gap could persist until market share stabilises or improves. I would not build the investment case around further P/E expansion; instead, the focus should be on whether NSE can deliver around 15-16 percent core expansion over the medium term," Seth further noted.

"The broader lesson from the pre-IPO market is additionally important: market participants should not buy purely for a stock-exchange debut gain. With the unlisted price around Rs 2,000 versus the Rs 1,785 IPO upper band, the thesis should be based on being comfortable holding the business for 3-5 years, irrespective of the initial stock-exchange debut performance," he further noted.

NSE is India's largest stock exchange in terms of total turnover across key asset classes, with a 93.05 percent market share in the cash market, 99.72 percent in equity futures, 68.48 percent in equity options, 100 percent in exchange-traded currency futures and 100 percent in exchange-traded currency options, based on total premium turnover, as of the three-month period ended June 2026.

NSE IPO allotment is anticipated by September 22, while share stock-exchange debut is proposed on September 24.