Tata Steel, JSW Steel, Jindal Steel remain ‘Buy’: Nomura as steel prices hit new highs

As per the latest business developments, Nomura maintains its 'Buy' recommendations on Tata Steel, JSW Steel and Jindal Steel as domestic steel prices keep strengthen, with HRC and rebar prices scaling new highs.

"We maintain our positive stance on the India steel sector," Nomura stated, noting that domestic HRC prices rose Rs 1,600/t week-on-week to Rs 63,800/t in the week ended September 18, the highest level in the past four years. Rebar prices rose Rs 2,300/t w-w to Rs 60,450/t, marking a renewed uptrend after moderation since 1QFY27.

Nomura stated the "domestic steel industry is well positioned to benefit in 1HFY27F from the price hikes implemented", which it believes are "more than sufficient to absorb any cost inflation related to raw material".

The domestic flat-long spread stays positive at over Rs 3,350/t, supported by resilience in HRC prices over rebar. India's HRC spot margin stands at around Rs 37,245/t, while 2QFY27F margins have averaged Rs 35,935/t, around Rs 330/t below 1QFY27.

Global steel prices additionally strengthened. China export HRC prices were unchanged at $510/t, while domestic HRC declined $3/t w-w to $495/t. China export margins stood at $194/t, while domestic margins remained weak at $130/t amid elevated coking coal costs. Europe HRC prices rose EUR25/t w-w to EUR735/t, lifting margins by EUR20/t to EUR460/t.

Imported coking coal remained at $283/t, the highest level year-to-date and well above the August 2026 average of $232/t amid supply concerns. Iron ore prices were around $91/t.

India has secured a 1.9 million-tonne country-specific tariff-rate quota for steel exports to the EU, with another 0.9 million tonnes potentially available through residual quotas, taking potential annual access to around 2.8 million tonnes. CBAM will keep apply even within the duty-free quota.

India's crude steel production edged down 0.1% y-y to 14.1 million tonnes in August, while finished steel consumption rose 3.9% y-y to 14.32 million tonnes. Finished steel imports rose 8% y-y to 0.72 million tonnes, while exports increased 31.3% to 0.69 million tonnes.