Chartist Talk: Technical bounce in Nifty 50 likely? Rahul Ghose says these 2 stocks are worth tracking…

Reports coming in for today mention that According to Rahul Ghose, Founder and CEO of Octanom Tech and Hedged, the Nifty 50 is now deeply oversold, with the RSI hovering around 27, so a technical bounce in the near term would not be a surprise. The bigger picture, that stated, stays weak, he stated in an interview with Moneycontrol.

He is bullish on the capital markets space, which is buzzing on the back of developments related to the NSE’s IPO.

“Angel One looks like it is setting up for a breakout from its recent consolidation range, while BSE Ltd has printed two consecutive softer-wick candles near its 50-week EMA — often a sign of buyers stepping in at a key backing level. Both are worth tracking closely,” he stated.

The broader trend structure for Varun Beverages stays weak, Ghose stated. “A break above Rs 448 would change this picture and open room for further upside. Until then, I’d treat it as range-bound with a wary bias,” he stated.

What are the key technical marks to watch for the Nifty 50 the week ahead?

The bears stay firmly in the driver's seat. Nifty 50 keeps trade below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages — a structural red flag that's hard to ignore. That stated, the index is now deeply oversold, with the RSI hovering around 27, so a technical bounce in the near term wouldn't be a surprise. The bigger picture, though, is still weak.

On the upside, 23,500–23,600 is the level to watch — it marks the last swing high on the hourly chart, and the index has been forming a pattern of softer tops and softer bottoms below it. A decisive move past this zone would be the first sign of relief.

Beyond that, 24,000 is the next real hurdle, and frankly, that looks like a stretch in the short to medium term unless the macro backdrop improves meaningfully — something that would likely require a de-escalation in the US-Iran conflict, a cooling in US 10-year bond yields, and oil staying well below the $100 a barrel mark rather than threatening it. Until then, rallies are best treated as opportunities to reduce risk rather than chase.

How are FIIs at present positioning themselves?

There's a modest silver lining here. FII selling intensity has eased compared to last month, and foreign market participants have actually turned net buyers so far in September. That's a welcome change after a prolonged phase of outflows.

But I'd caution against reading too much into it just yet — if global macro conditions keep deteriorate, particularly on the oil and interest-rate front, it's unrealistic to expect this buying trend to sustain or accelerate anytime soon. For now, it's best viewed as a pause in selling rather than a conviction-led return of flows.

Which two stocks are on your radar for the week ahead?

HDFC Bank is holding up well in an otherwise fragile market, sitting right at a crucial backing band of Rs 650–680. What's interesting is the context: following the MD's exit announcement, there's growing market expectation that fresh leadership could bring a renewed strategic propel, which many see as a potential re-rating trigger for the stock over time.

The second theme is the capital markets space, which is buzzing on the back of NSE's IPO-related developments. Within this, Angel One looks like it's setting up for a breakout from its recent consolidation range, while BSE Ltd has printed two consecutive softer-wick candles near its 50-week EMA — often a sign of buyers stepping in at a key backing. Both are worth tracking closely.

What's the anticipated trend for Bank Nifty after its sharp Friday recovery?

Bank Nifty is showing relatively more resilience than the Nifty 50. Unlike the broader index, it's trading closer to both its 50 and 200-day EMAs, and it bounced smartly off backing near 56,000. From here, a move toward the 56,900–57,000 zone looks achievable.

On the daily chart, though, it's still trading near the softer band of a falling channel, so this isn't a trend reversal just yet. Overall, I expect Bank Nifty to stay range-bound in the short to medium term rather than break out decisively in either direction.

Would you advise taking exposure to Awfis Space Solutions at this stage?

The setup here looks constructive. The stock has broken out of a falling trendline above the Rs 284.60 mark, and importantly, this breakout has come on record volumes — which adds conviction to the move. The next resistance to watch is around Rs 424; a sustained move above that level could open the path toward Rs 550, given the path-of-least-resistance tends to favour the upside once that hurdle is cleared. It's a name worth watching closely for those comfortable with the risk.

Do you see further upside potential in Laurus Labs and Varun Beverages?

Laurus Labs — yes, the longer-term structure stays constructive, but the stock has already rallied nearly 100 percent over the last six months, so chasing it here isn't ideal. A healthier entry would be on a pullback toward the Rs 1,500–1,600 zone, which coincides with the weekly 20-EMA. Patience is the operative word here.

Varun Beverages, on the other hand, is a different story. The stock is at present forming softer highs and softer lows, and while it's sitting at a weekly backing level, the broader trend structure stays down. A break above Rs 448 is the level that would change this picture and open room for further upside. Until then, I'd treat it as range-bound with a wary bias.