‘Quick commerce won’t last 20 years with humans’: TVS’ Gopal Srinivasan on current hot market themes

As per the latest business developments, Long-term private capital is pivoting away from high-burn consumer models and generic “.AI” labels, Gopal Srinivasan, Founder, Chairman and Managing Director of TVS Capital Funds, stated in a conversation with Moneycontrol at the Global Fintech Fest 2026.

The veteran investor, who has long described many consumer-internet trends as “passing fads and fantasies”, shared his outlook on shifting market preferences, cooler valuations and the climb of domestic “Indian rupee Capital”.

The reality check on quick commerce and AI hype

Srinivasan questioned the long-term sustainability of the quick-commerce delivery model under current conditions. He has held this view for some time. In earlier comments, he called the sector a micro-trend running almost entirely on PE and VC funding, without multi-decadal economic viability.

“My context on quick commerce is very clear,” he stated at GFF 2026. “In the very long term, depending on people riding in congested traffic will mean it will become expensive over time. Salaries are going up very fast. The question asked to me is: is it a 20-year multi-decadal model? With robotaxis yes, but with humans no.”

He has previously noted that TVS Capital looked at Swiggy and Zomato years ago and walked away because the firm did not know enough around the business. In contrast, the firm backed Nykaa, which he saw as a deeper structural trend fuelled by women entering the workforce in large numbers.

He additionally urged caution against startups that simply rebrand themselves around artificial intelligence buzzwords without solving actual customer pain points.

“I don’t understand when somebody says, ‘I am an AI firm.’ I don’t know what that means,” he stated. “Firms exist to solve customers’ problems and in turn make a earnings for their market participants, as Peter Drucker stated long ago. I would not be surprised if something odd happens to some of those firms.”

Tech-led manufacturing and deep tech emerge as key bets

Instead of consumer-internet fads, Srinivasan identified tech-enabled manufacturing as the hottest opportunity for long-term private capital. He has repeatedly highlighted this shift in recent years.

He pointed to India’s deepening integration into the global aerospace supply chain. Tier-2 and Tier-3 domestic suppliers are increasingly manufacturing radar parts, aircraft structural members and precision electromechanical components for major global players.

Order books in space tech have become robust. India is building capacity in space subsystems such as satellite solar panels. It is additionally expanding in critical equipment such as transformers and cabinets required for data centres and the broader energy transition.

“Manufacturing I think is the hottest sector right now,” he has stated in similar vein before. “And that too what I would call tech-led manufacturing.”

Beyond aerospace and space, he sees firm potential in power infrastructure tied to the energy transition. Five years from now, he anticipates two or three out of every 10 smaller deep-tech firms to “shoot up to the stars”.

He sits on bodies linked to the Technology Development Board and the government’s Research, Development and Innovation propel, and has spoken often around the quality of entrepreneurs emerging in these areas.

Financial services reset and valuations

Srinivasan noted that broader private-market valuations have cooled to healthier marks after years of overheating. In financial services, total private equity and venture capital investments eased by nearly half in FY26 compared with their peak of around Rs 75,000 crore in 2022.

“Three to four times price-to-net-worth was very common for NBFCs; now it is back to two times,” he observed. “There are banks available at half to one time price-to-book. As a result, financial services itself has very good potential right now.”

Wealth management has emerged as a major bright spot. It attracted between Rs 8,000 crore and Rs 9,000 crore in capital during the past year, up sharply from historical marks of around Rs 2,000 crore. TVS Capital itself made its first bet in the wealth-management space earlier this year.

On core fintech, he noted that foundational payment systems are largely built out. Future innovation will focus on insurance, credit and investment inclusion. These will be anchored by blockchain tokenisation and artificial intelligence as horizontal enablers.

Domestic pension capital and the Rs 1 lakh crore RDI Fund

Addressing macroeconomic trends, Srinivasan highlighted that India is moving past its recent period of net negative Foreign Direct Investment. That phase was fuelled by foreign private-equity funds repatriating earnings through large exits.

“Money is coming back and Indian money is rising,” he stated. He has long argued that India needs far more domestic institutional capital in private markets. The country has large long-term savings pools in pensions, insurance and HNI capital, yet only a small fraction at present flows into venture and private equity.

He revealed that domestic institutional funding is set for a major breakthrough. The Pension Fund Regulatory and Development Authority is preparing to invest in Alternative Investment Funds over the next two months. At the same time, the government’s Rs 1 lakh crore Research, Development and Innovation Fund is anticipated to announce its second-level fund managers soon.

“Five years from now, you are going to see these smaller deep-tech firms (two or three out of 10) just shoot up to the stars,” Srinivasan stated. He pointed to his optimism on deep-tech innovation through platforms like the Technology Development Board. “There are incredible entrepreneurs out there today.”