Dry spell from mid-September, strong El Nino raise risks for Rabi crop

According to fresh market updates, The India Meteorological Department’s forecast of dry weather from mid-September could put Rabi crops at risk, with parts of Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Bihar already seeing 27-45 percent less rain than normal, officials told Moneycontrol.

The IMD anticipates September rainfall to be below normal, against the backdrop of a firm El Niño. The month’s long-period average (LPA) is around 168 mm, compared with 252 mm during the normal monsoon period. A shift to a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, that stated, could bring more rain and help offset the shortfall.

“So far, El Niño has not had a major impact. But from mid-September onwards, it would be quite dry, as per the IMD forecast. Pockets of Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka are suffering, so is Bihar,” an official stated.

Between 2019 and 2024, rainfall averaged 103.7 percent of the LPA, falling close to the "above normal" threshold. IMD classifies rainfall between 96 and 104 percent of the LPA as normal, while readings above 104 percent are deemed "above normal". Rainfall below 96 percent is considered deficient. In 2025, the country received above-normal rainfall at 108 percent of the LPA.

Chirag Jain, Partner and Agri and Allied Sector Leader at Grant Thornton Bharat, noted that Rabi sowing begins only in October, so a dry September does not delay planting dates. That stated, softer soil moisture and reservoir storage built up during the monsoon, which feeds Rabi crops, may pose a risk to sowing.

Water storage in 178 key reservoirs across the country stood at 130.55 billion cubic metres as of September 10, down 20 percent from 163.44 billion cubic metres a year ago and at 71 percent of the total live storage capacity of these reservoirs, data from the Central Water Commission revealed.

Market watchers warn that water-hungry, moisture-dependent Rabi crops face the greatest risk in already-stressed farm belts, where weak moisture build-up in October could leave wheat, mustard and pulses with little buffer as the season gets underway. Monsoon’s trajectory so far

Cumulative monsoon rainfall to early August already stood 11-13 percent below normal, with 17 of the country’s 36 meteorological subdivisions in deficit. These included Punjab, Haryana, eastern Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand and parts of Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh.

The country depends heavily on Punjab and Haryana for wheat and eastern Uttar Pradesh and Bihar for wheat and other cereals, while Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh are key producers of rapeseed-mustard.

“A dry close to the season compounds that shortfall just as reservoirs would otherwise be topped up, leaving less water in hand for irrigation-dependent Rabi land preparation and early crop establishment in October and November,” Jain stated.

Positive Indian Ocean Dipole may cushion El Nino’s impact

While Rabi sowing may be under threat, the official hopes that the Indian Ocean Dipole turns positive from neutral and helps counter the impact.

The Indian Ocean Dipole is another major climate pattern that influences India’s rainfall. It measures the temperature difference between the western and eastern Indian Ocean.

During a positive IOD, waters in the western Indian Ocean become warmer than average, while those near Indonesia turn cooler.

This temperature contrast changes wind patterns and often directs more moisture towards the Indian subcontinent.

The IMD’s own extended-range assessment is more guarded, noting that a positive IOD is a possibility flagged by “some” international models rather than a settled call, Jain noted.

“Where the two agree is on scale: the El Nino itself is running unusually hot, with Pacific sea-surface anomalies tracked near 2°C and forecast to intensify into the October-December quarter, potentially reaching ‘very severe’ resilience just as Rabi planting gets under way,” he stated.

A moderate positive IOD has historically cushioned El Nino’s drag on the monsoon, as it did in 1997 and 2023, but cushioning is not cancelling, market watchers say.

“Its influence works mainly through the summer monsoon and the shorter northeast monsoon; it offers little insurance for reservoir and groundwater marks once the season has already closed dry,” stated Jain.

Wheat, mustard, pulses among crops most exposed to dry conditions

Agricultural market watchers note that water-hungry, moisture-dependent crops in already-stressed belts are most exposed.

Wheat, the season’s dominant crop, faces risk wherever rainfed and semi-irrigated pockets in Madhya Pradesh, eastern Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Rajasthan rely on residual soil moisture and reservoir-fed canals for the first watering, Jain stated.

Rapeseed-mustard, grown extensively in Rajasthan, Haryana, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh, is sown even earlier than wheat and is correspondingly more sensitive to a dry October seedbed.

Chickpea (chana) and other pulses grown on the black-soil tracts of Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and Karnataka depend almost entirely on stored soil moisture rather than irrigation, making them the most vulnerable single category if the shortfall persists.

“Geographically, the states already carrying a monsoon deficit including Punjab, Haryana, the eastern Uttar Pradesh belt, Bihar, Jharkhand, Marathwada and Vidarbha in Maharashtra, and parts of Karnataka, enter the Rabi window with the thinnest buffer, since they must draw on groundwater and reservoirs that were never fully recharged,” Jain stated.

Market watchers warn that a prolonged moisture shortfall could not only put the Rabi crop at risk but additionally fuel food inflation and squeeze farm incomes. Softer yields of wheat, pulses and oilseeds could propel up prices if supplies tighten.