Chartist Talk: Is Nifty more likely to witness a pullback than a breakdown below 22,000 next week? SBI…

According to fresh market updates, While the broader trend stays bearish, oversold conditions suggest that Nifty is more likely to witness a short-term pause, consolidation, or pullback rather than a high-probability breakdown below 22,000 the week ahead, stated Sudeep Shah, the Vice President – Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities, in an interview with Moneycontrol.

According to him, the price action around the 22,150-22,100 backing zone will be critical in determining the next directional move.

For the Bank Nifty, he believes the 54,000–53,700 zone stays a crucial backing area for the banking index. As long as Bank Nifty holds above this backing band, the probability of a pullback stays high; on the upside, the 55,000–55,200 zone will act as an immediate hurdle, he stated.

Do you see a high probability of the Nifty 50 breaking below 22,000 the week ahead?

At this stage, the probability of Nifty decisively breaking below 22,000 in the immediate week appears relatively low, despite the prevailing bearish trend. The index has already undergone a sharp correction of nearly 14 percent in 2026 and has extended its losing streak to eight consecutive weeks, making it significantly stretched on the downside.

Technically, the 22,150-22,100 zone stays a crucial backing area. In addition, the gap between the current price and the 20-day EMA has widened beyond 4 percent, while the daily RSI has approached the oversold zone. Historically, such stretched readings have often resulted in either a pullback surge or a phase of consolidation before the broader trend resumes.

That stated, the medium-term structure stays weak as Nifty has eased below its 200-week SMA, while continued FII selling and global uncertainties keep weigh on sentiment. As a result, a sustained break below 22,100 could open the door for a move towards the 22,000 mark and softer marks.

Overall, while the broader trend stays bearish, oversold conditions suggest that Nifty is more likely to witness a short-term pause, consolidation, or pullback rather than a high-probability breakdown below 22,000 the week ahead. The price action around the 22,150-22,100 backing zone will be critical in determining the next directional move.

Would you advise taking exposure to Siemens Energy after its over 4 percent surge the current week?

Siemens Energy has been consolidating within the Rs 3,158–3,358 range since September 21. The ADX stays flat, indicating a lack of firm directional momentum. The sideways movement has additionally led to the moving averages flattening out, reflecting a range-bound bias.

A decisive breakout on either side of the range will provide further directional cues. A sustained breakout above the upper end of the range could trigger a fresh upmove in the stock.

Does Welspun Living look overbought at current marks?

Welspun Living has been forming a elevated-high structure on the daily chart. That stated, despite the stock making a new high, the ADX has started to slide, indicating that trend resilience is weakening.

At the same time, the RSI has failed to make a corresponding new high, resulting in a bearish divergence. A decisive breakdown below the 20-day EMA zone of Rs 210–215 could signal a trend reversal. Until then, the broader bullish bias is likely to stay intact.

Following its significant recovery the current week, do you see greater upside potential than downside risk in Mphasis?

Mphasis witnessed a rebound from its prior swing-low zone of Rs 2,130–2,110. That stated, the overall trend has not changed significantly, with the stock still trading below key moving averages.

For the recovery to gain further resilience, the stock needs to decisively move above its 20-day EMA, placed in the Rs 2,280–2,290 zone. As of now, the charts do not indicate a clear shift in favour of greater upside potential, as the recovery noted the current week cannot yet be considered a durable trend reversal.

Will the Bank Nifty be able to defend the 54,000–53,700 backing zone the week ahead?

Despite ending softer for the sixth consecutive week, Bank Nifty has shown signs of resilience over the last three trading sessions by outperforming the key market indices. In addition, the Bank Nifty-to-Nifty ratio chart has witnessed a consolidation breakout, indicating improving relative resilience within the banking space.

From a technical perspective, the 54,000–53,700 zone stays a crucial backing area for the index. As long as Bank Nifty manages to hold above this backing band, the probability of a pullback stays high. On the upside, the 55,000–55,200 zone will act as an immediate hurdle. A sustained move above 55,200 could trigger a stronger recovery towards 56,000, followed by 56,500.

While the broader trend keeps stay wary following the breach of the 100-week EMA, the recent improvement in relative resilience suggests that Bank Nifty is well placed to defend the 54,000–53,700 backing zone and may keep outperform the broader market in the near term.

Does the formation of a bullish harami pattern signal further upside for Havells India the week ahead?

Havells India has formed a bullish harami pattern near a major backing zone of Rs 1,040–1,010 on the daily chart. The stock has witnessed rebounds from this zone on multiple occasions, including in March 2022 and December 2022. That stated, a bullish harami by itself does not confirm a reversal and needs firm follow-through over the upcoming sessions.

As long as the stock sustains above this backing zone, the pullback could extend in the near term. A decisive breakdown below the zone would negate the pattern and could lead to further downside.

Are you bullish on Mankind Pharma at current marks?

Mankind Pharma has been consolidating within the Rs 2,430–2,559 range over the last eight sessions. Despite the consolidation, the stock keeps trade above its key moving averages.

The rising ADX indicates that trend resilience stays supportive of the bullish bias. A decisive breakout above the upper end of the range could trigger a fresh leg of the upmove in the near term.