Moneycontrol Pro Panorama | Bright skies, dark clouds

According to fresh market updates, Dear Reader,

The Panorama newsletter is sent to Moneycontrol Pro subscribers on market days. It offers easy access to stories published on Moneycontrol Pro and gives a little extra by setting out a context or an event or trend that market participants should keep track of.

Mumbai’s Ganesh Visarjan is over and with it the monsoon additionally seems to have departed its shores, leaving behind the heat and humidity the city is famous for. The September quarter is additionally ending today, but it is doubtful if market participants are waiting with bated breath to see what results it brings.

Whatever good news earnings brought in the June quarter has not been enough to revive spirits, so what difference could one more quarter make may be the pain-tinged question. That defeatist tone can be attributed to the downward trend in the equity market, which is seeing steady erosion in the current month.

Markets appear to be in a mood where they react adversely to bad news, but look through the good parts. Here is one not so good but not surprising bit of news. Jefferies’ first batch of earnings previews brings one from the IT sector, which will add a darker shade to market participants’ fears for this sector that’s a mainstay of the market, only second to banks in market capitalisation. Jefferies’ note says it anticipates large IT firms to post their weakest September quarter expansion in three years while mid-sized firms will do better. Will management commentary and guidance change the narrative is the question.

The clouds are gathering over the rural sector too. In today’s edition, R. Sree Ram covers the impact of an El Nino year on the rural sector. Kharif sowing already reveals stress in some key crops such as rice and maize, and led to elevated prices of some vegetables, which could get worse as the months go by. But policymakers are additionally getting worried for the Rabi sowing, if moisture marks play truant. A weak agriculture sector not only affects firms that are directly dependent but additionally weakens rural consumption which affects several sectors. The government is contemplating an gain in MSP for Rabi crops according to this report — A healthy gain should give farmers a cushion from adverse weather conditions but it’s a double-edged sword as food inflation will perk up.

One cause behind fears of elevated inflation is India’s import basket — especially crude and edible oils—and the indian rupee’s weakening on landed costs. Aparna Iyer writes around the indian rupee in today’s edition, “The Indian indian rupee has depreciated more than 6 percent so far in calendar 2026, much of it after the US-Iran war drove up uncertainty and commodity prices from February onwards. The odds of a dramatic revival in the indian rupee are low, given that every factor is working against the currency.” While a number of factors are at work in its weakening, the traditional defender of the indian rupee may now move to the other side. Read to know why.

A weak outlook for equity markets, the indian rupee, rural markets and rising domestic inflation brings one asset class into picture — gold. Rural households have sizeable holdings of the yellow metal and the roaring business being done in gold loans additionally points to it being leveraged to meet cash needs. Gold additionally typically outperforms during adverse conditions for equity markets, but Shishir Asthana points out that correlation may not hold true this time around. Gold prices have been weakening as well in September, and the biggest reason appears to be sharply elevated US bond yields. Has gold then lost its long-term appeal? Read to know more.

The picture emerging from markets may appear to be a disconcerting one, which it is, but additionally remember that there are several positive factors too — of which a few are healthy GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT expansion, robust industrial expansion, private capex revival taking root, and most importantly, healthy bank and corporate balance sheets. Of course, everyone wants to know when the bottom will be made in the equity market, but it’s usually visible long after it has been made. Buckle up for the ride ahead is all one can say, for what it's worth.

Investing insights from our research team

Sagility: What makes it a compelling idea now?

Mazagon Dock: Can the next ordering cycle revive expansion?

Dairy players: Does a elevated VAP mix justify premium valuations?

Cholamandalam Investment: Superior product mix, asset quality backing valuation

What else are we reading?

Make peace with a weak indian rupee, the RBI already has

Chart of the Day: India’s steel exports to US grow 31%, but overall US steel imports slide 18.4%

Gold’s safe haven status in question as prices dip during global conflicts

El Nino, water constraints cast shadow over rural demand

China's chip strategy and its lessons for India

The Thucydides Trap is Made in China

Liberated by technology (again) (republished from the FT)

Midterms and the market (republished from the FT)

India's fondness for gold is a market phenomenon, not a moral problem

IRDAI's proposed reforms and their impact on insurance distribution

Fuelling India’s farm revolution

Emerging markets outpace US megacaps as global equity leadership broadens

Technical Picks: AXISBANK, WSTCSTPAPR, GRINDWELL, BORORENEW, SUNPHARMA

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