Gold retail sales fall 8-10% y-o-y in September ahead of festive season: IBJA Secy

As per the latest business developments, Retail gold demand in India stays below 2025 marks ahead of the festive season as consumer sentiment keeps be weighed down by the ongoing war and uncertainty over prices.

Surendra Mehta, Secretary of the India Bullion and Jewellers Association (IBJA), stated, "Gold sales is at present down by 8-10 percent in September, compared to last year. Customers confused with war situation, as most of customer understand that if war continues, gold prices can further go down, and hence demand is not picking up inspite of the festival season ahead. For gold demand to revive, war must end and prices should start appreciating. Till then no upward trend in demand."

Spot gold prices in India have declined by more than 7 percent since the US-Iran war that began in late February, hovering above Rs 1,61,700 per 10 grams on MCX. The price then declined 8.94 percent in March, but recovered some upside to trade just above 4 percent in April and May. The surge declined 7.27 percent in June, with a marginal gain in July. Prices continued to surge in August to Rs 1,57,750 with a 9.68 percent gain, and have since corrected 4.85 percent to Rs 1,50,106 on September 24, 2026.

As compared to last year, the domestic price of 24-karat pure gold has surged around 60 percent, from around Rs 98,000 to Rs 1.57 lakh per 10 grams.

Will festive and wedding demand spur demand for gold?

Gold sales have declined as high prices and volatility weigh on consumer affordability.

According to Nirpendra Yadav, Sr. Research Market observer at Bonanza Portfolio, "Festive and wedding demand should provide some backing over the upcoming weeks if they stay below last year's volume marks, particularly if gold prices correct further from their recent highs and then stabilise. A meaningful correction could bring postponed purchases back into the market, but the recovery in physical volumes is likely to be gradual because gold stays significantly more expensive than it was a year ago."

Gold price outlook: key factor to watch is price stability

Yadav estimates that if prices stay volatile or resume a sharp upward move, consumers are likely to continue buying smaller quantities. On the other hand, a sustained correction could improve affordability and revive demand for jewellery.

"Importantly, the current softness appears to be more of a change in the quantity and composition of gold purchases than a loss of the underlying cultural and investment demand for the metal. This could become a elevated-value but softer-volume festive season for the jewellery industry. That distinction is important—sales measured in indian rupee terms can stay relatively firm even while the actual quantity of gold sold declines. WGC data already reveals this divergence clearly," Yadav stated.

Market watchers maintain that consumers are instead adjusting their buying behaviour by opting for lighter jewellery, softer quantities and exchange schemes, while some investment demand is shifting towards gold ETFs, coins and digital gold.

"Jewellery buyers are turning wary on grammage, opting for lighter, softer-carat and diamond-studded pieces, while making-charge and exchange offers drive footfall. The real momentum, that stated, sits in investment demand — coins, bars and gold ETFs keep see record inflows as consumers treat gold as a portfolio hedge rather than just an adornment purchase. We expect Dhanteras and Diwali to post healthy value expansion even if tonnage expansion stays modest, with digital gold and SIP-style buying gaining further traction among younger market participants," Renisha Chainani, Chief Research Officer at Augmont, stated.