Eris, Torrent Pharma, Natco, Lupin stand out in Rs157 billion India GLP-1 opportunity: Kotak

Reports coming in for today mention that Eris Lifesciences, Torrent Pharma, Natco Pharma and Lupin are anticipated to see the highest contribution to FY2029E earnings per share from India's GLP-1 opportunity, at 4-12%, according to Kotak Institutional Equities. Sun Pharma is anticipated to generate the highest India Semaglutide sales among domestic players at around Rs5.4 billion by FY2029E, although its overall EPS contribution is anticipated to stay "miniscule".

In its latest report, Kotak anticipates India's overall GLP-1 market to reach around Rs157 billion by FY2032E, or around 4% of the Indian pharmaceutical market (IPM), with generic products accounting for around Rs99 billion. Including innovators, it anticipates 6.6 million Indians to be on GLP-1 therapies in FY2032E, compared with 0.27 million at present.

"The Semaglutide opportunity in India is unique due to a compressed launch window for innovators with the market still defining its boundaries," Kotak stated.

Based on its proprietary Right-To-Win (RTW) framework, Sun Pharma, Lupin, Torrent Pharma, Eris Lifesciences, Alkem Laboratories, Zydus Lifesciences and Mankind Pharma stand out. That stated, despite the large market size, Kotak does not expect any single formulation firm to benefit disproportionately from the India GLP-1 opportunity.

Kotak sees 6.6 million Indians on GLP-1 therapies by FY2032

With more than 100 million Indians at present affected by diabetes and around 75 million adults classified as obese, GLP-1 adoption is anticipated to gain at a healthy pace, Kotak stated.

As of July 2026, Semaglutide generics constituted around 14% of the total GLP-1 market in India. Adoption has been "tad slower than initially anticipated", partly due to supply constraints and stringent regulatory requirements.

"With growing dosage options, declining API prices and rising penetration, we expect the generic GLP-1 market to reach ~Rs99 bn by FY2032E," Kotak stated.

The brokerage has assumed around 5% of Indian diabetes patients will shift to GLP-1s by FY2032E. For obese patients, it has assumed around 9% adoption by FY2032E, with nominal adoption in overweight patients.

Kotak anticipates the market to be initially dominated by injectables, with oral therapies gradually increasing their share to around 27% by FY2032E.

Sun Pharma, Lupin, Torrent Pharma among leading players

Following Semaglutide's loss of exclusivity (LOE), 33 branded generics are being marketed by 16 firms, Kotak stated.

Its RTW framework assesses firms based on pricing, franchise resilience in cardio-diabetic and adjacent therapies, backward integration, dosage forms including pens, vials and orals, device differentiation, new go-to-market initiatives and historical LOE track record.

"In absolute terms, SUNP, LPC, TRP, Eris, Alkem, Zydus and Mankind stand out in this framework," Kotak stated.

The brokerage anticipates leading Semaglutide players to account for around 83% of the generics market by FY2029E. Despite the huge market size, it does not expect any single generic formulation firm to benefit disproportionately from the India GLP-1 opportunity.

CDMOs, device makers could additionally benefit

Kotak anticipates Sun Pharma to generate India Semaglutide sales of around Rs5.4 billion by FY2029E, the highest among domestic players, primarily led by its firm existing presence in cardiac and anti-diabetes therapies. Yet, the overall EPS contribution is anticipated to be "miniscule" for Sun Pharma.

Among formulation firms, Eris, Torrent Pharma, Natco and Lupin will see the highest contribution to FY2029E EPS at 4-12%.

Similarly, CDMOs such as OneSource and, to an extent, Gland Pharma, along with device manufacturers such as Shaily Engineering Plastics, should witness a healthy earnings contribution from the India GLP-1 opportunity, Kotak stated.